With the December 2024 elections approaching, a final survey by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that John Mahama, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, is currently in a strong position against his main competitor, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
According to the poll, Mahama has the support of 51.1% of committed voters, while Bawumia stands at 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako are polling at 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively. Other candidates are at 1.3%.
Using an unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama remains ahead with 49.3%, compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%. The survey highlights low voter enthusiasm as a challenge for the NPP, with 16% of potential non-voters linked to the party, whereas only 3% of NDC supporters show such apathy. Among those who identify as undecided or prefer not to disclose their affiliation, 38% and 39% respectively have expressed that they might abstain from voting.
Among floating voters, Mahama has a strong advantage, leading Bawumia by 31 points (54% to 23%), and also holds an 18-point lead among those who did not disclose their party affiliation. First-time voters have shifted toward Mahama, who now leads Bawumia 46% to 38%, a notable change from an even split in July 2024.
A concerning trend for Bawumia is a decrease in support among Muslim voters, a key demographic for him, with a nearly 4% decline since July. Additionally, Mahama is gaining traction among former supporters of President Akufo-Addo; while 70% of them continue to back Bawumia, 19% have switched allegiance to Mahama, and 5% each have opted for Kyeremanten and Bediako. In Greater Accra and Central regions, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters have shifted their support to Mahama.
Regionally, Mahama leads in 12 areas, having added Bono since the previous poll in July. He now holds Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta regions. Bawumia, meanwhile, has maintained support in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.
Independent candidates Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten are proving influential in certain regions, particularly Eastern and Ashanti, where their support is eroding Bawumia’s base. In the NPP’s traditional stronghold of Ashanti, where they aim for 85% of votes, Bawumia currently stands at 66%, followed by Mahama with 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyeremanten at 4%.
Mahama is also outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed, while Bawumia is trailing behind his candidates in 79, indicating that the presence of Kyeremanten and Bediako could affect the ruling party’s prospects.
Key concerns driving voter decisions include the economy, jobs, and education. The economy is the most cited issue, with 70% of respondents prioritizing it, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%). Poor economic conditions are the leading concern for 55%, followed by party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).
On manifestos, the NDC holds a 14-point lead in favorability over the NPP. The sentiment regarding Ghana’s direction is largely negative, with 62% of respondents feeling the country is on the wrong track, including 88% of NDC supporters, 74% of floating voters, and 76% of other party supporters. In contrast, 64% of NPP backers believe the country is headed in the right direction.
President Nana Akufo-Addo’s approval rating stands at 36%, with 59% disapproving. The government’s overall performance is viewed negatively by 49% of voters, with 30% giving it a positive rating.
As the elections near, Mahama’s strong regional support and popularity among undecided voters and key demographics place him in a favorable position, while Bawumia and the NPP face mounting difficulties, including the rise of independent candidates and growing voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions
