Global InfoAnalytics has predicted a victory for John Dramani Mahama, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, in the upcoming presidential race.
In its latest poll, released just eight days before the December 7 general elections, the research firm forecasts Mahama securing 52.2% of the vote, leading Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), who is projected to receive 41.4%.
The prediction also estimates 2.5% of votes for Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, 3.0% for Nana Kwame Bediako, and 0.9% for other candidates. This analysis has a margin of error of ±1.8%, with voter turnout projected at 77.6%.
In terms of regional dynamics, Mr Mahama is predicted to win in 10 regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern regions.
Dr Bawumia is expected to claim victories in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, among others.
The NDC is also forecasted to take the lead in the parliamentary elections, with an estimated 150 seats. The NPP is expected to win 99 seats, while one seat is likely to go to an independent candidate. However, 29 constituencies remain too close to call.
This projection underscores a shift in parliamentary representation, with the NDC potentially consolidating gains in stronghold areas while contesting NPP-dominated regions.
The report highlights critical trends shaping voter preferences, including economic concerns, job creation, and public service delivery.
It also stressed on the role of regional strongholds in determining the overall election outcome.
The predictions reflect a base-case scenario but include worse- and best-case models, where Mahama’s support could range from 50.4% to 54.1%, depending on final voter turnout and undecided voters.
